Earth is changing. See what follows.

Energy · Middle East · Global

Will EIA's September 9, 2026 STEO forecast average Q4 2026 Brent at $80 per barrel or higher?

PRIOR35%

→

SIMULATED50%

+15 points

01Compose the evidence stateTurn observations on or off to create a counterfactual.

EIA establishes the forecast baseline

The August STEO supplies the prior forecast state Delta is testing for revision.

+0E2

IEA projects a supply deficit

The August Oil Market Report strengthens the tighter-balance branch.

+12E3

IMO records renewed maritime incidents

Direct incident reporting raises the probability of persistent transit disruption.

+8E4

OPEC+ retains a supply-response path

A scheduled production adjustment partially dampens the deficit signal.

-5

02Follow the consequencesSequence, propagation, feedback, and exposure.

01renewed maritime incidents→

02constrained Hormuz transit and Gulf flows→

03inventory drawdown and projected deficit→

04support for elevated Brent prices→

05possible upward revision to EIA's Q4 forecast

AFFECTED EXPOSURESenergy import costsairline, shipping, and logistics marginsinflation-sensitive rates and currencies

03Define what would prove it wrongEvery judgment carries an escape hatch from confirmation bias.

A durable safe-passage agreement materially restores Hormuz transit before September 9.
Official data show rapid production restoration or inventory stabilization.
OPEC+ announces a much larger, realizable supply response on September 6.

PRODUCT PREVIEW · SHA-256calculating…

Simulation only · 0.00 USDC · cannot be counted as revenue